![]() We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate-predator interactions.Ĭaribou (Rangifer tarandus) Cause-specific survival analysis Conservation biology Population dynamics Predator–prey interactions. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator-prey interactions. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. If the prey can move, the predator must adapt and move faster. Each side must adapt to its changing environment in order to survive. ![]() The environment depends on the balance between the skills of the predator and the defence of its prey. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Predator/prey relations are vital in maintaining a healthy ecosystem. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990-2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions.
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